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Saturday, August 11, 2012

Romney-Ryan 2012: Grifting on Jobs

From Greg Sargent's Plum Line:

"The current Moody's Analytics baseline forecast is for payroll employment to increase by 12 million jobs from the start of 2013 to the end of 2016 (134 million to 146).

"However, the economic assumptions embedded in our forecast include only an extension of Bush-era tax rates for those under 250K, which is more closely aligned with the Obama administration's position. We also assume a bipartisan deal to scale back sequestration and achieve a long-run fiscally sustainable path, with Democrats accepting reforms to Social Security and Medicare in exchange for the increase in top tax rates.

"In effect, therefore, Romney is essentially promising no more jobs than we currently expect to gain under proposals similar to those advanced by the Obama administration. There's not enough in Romney's plan to estimate how many jobs it would create. If he's saying the net change will be 12 million jobs, that's exactly what we're estimating without Romney's plan."

2 comments:

  1. Informative post. I never knew that we're estimated to create 12 million jobs anyway. I wonder why the Obama/Biden campaign isn't using this. How did you find out about this?

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    1. Ezra Klein's WonkBlog and Greg Sargent's The Plum Line are both on this blog's required reading list...

      Like you, I wonder why this isn't something that the Obama campaign is talking about. My thought is that they were burned on their unemployment projections in 2009, and that's leading them to keep their projections close.

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